A patriotic American might say that supporting the national interest actually does support human progress. There’s plenty of evidence against that, but some evidence for it might be the immense number of people pulled from poverty under to the American rules-based international order.
Pacifist Europeans might do well to realize the long peace was and is enforced by US nuclear weapons. At a certain point you become a protectorate; and some gratitude is reasonable.
Europe has been around for a hell of a lot longer than the US. Seen countless bloody wars, and almost dang near wiped itself off the map less than 100 years ago. On top of providing the source material for the US to begin its course as a proto-european country. Language, art, culture, engineering know-how, state-craft, law, even religion and guns.
The thing which is exceptional is the amount of money and effort spent on defense by America compared to NATO allies or the rest of the world. Roughly 2x to 3x on a per capita or percent GDP basis of any European nation. More in total than the next 11 nations combined.
It is not through awesomeness but simple resource dedication which buys peace, which some conveniently neglect or pretend wouldn’t matter if the situation were much different.
Europe relies on this exceptional spending and benefits from it, having a disproportionately strong power encourages peace.
Not just nuclear weapons. NATO, huge military installations all across Europe and carrier groups patrolling all around. That coming after WWII lend-lease, direct military intervention and the Marshall plan.
The pacifist European needs to learn about geopolitics.
>but some evidence for it might be the immense number of people pulled from poverty under to the American rules-based international order.
And a 100x times people pushed into poverty, murdered and countries ruined because of it. I always wondered how countries like North Korea thrive and then I look at US which answers all my questions.
I'm not a fan of the US' record in many areas, especially oppressive, murderous aggression in other countries. I view the alternatives and marvel at how terrible human beings are, because they're all worse than the US. So that theme isn't really a deal breaker as far as I'm concerned.
* Sitting in a beach chair gets old in one or two weeks. Use the time to skill up: spend a few hours a day building something, or do a masters degree or short term course - maybe somewhere picturesque in Europe.
* Starting up is going to burn you out more than you are now. And possibly in addition to being burnt out you will have much less money than you do now.
* You will find another job unless you quit into the start of the recession.. then you have hiring freezes all around and you might need to take a sh*y job or work with sh*y people.
* Even if the bubble doesn't pop - for your next gig its unlikely you come in from a position of strength. They WILL low ball your comp on your next job. HR scum have seen this movie enough times.
* Boredom breeds a gambling habit. Don't use your free time to trade exciting markets.
* Cut up your credit cards. Its super easy to pile up "just a months income when I get back to work".
* Put half your money into a long term investment account. Put the rest in a cash account. Never eat into that long term account. When the cash account goes to 10% of what you started with drop everything and begin searching for paid work.
* Be accountable to yourself. Try to something meaningful to show for yourself when you're done.
I think you have some salient points; I would stay busy in the sense of making things (software) while I'm away.
> You will find another job unless you quit into the start of the recession..
This is probably what I fear, and why I'm asking around. With the inflation & supply chain issues recently, and with the current yield curve inversion, at least in a short-to-medium term sense I think the music is going to stop soon. But macro-economies are cyclical and although bad stuff spreads quickly, I don't think software specifically will have much of a dip even if some other economic sectors do.
I wasn't a professional in 2000-2003 after that downturn, but I was online during that time & witnessed the steady decline of "tech". I'm cautious of the "this time it's different" thesis, but the analog-only lifestyle that was possible in 2000 isn't what people do today - there will be long-term demand for what we/I do (this is my opinion).
To address the point directly: I think if we are starting a recession now-ish, in 6 months' time the subsequent upswing might already be starting - I recall Apr - Sept 2020. I'm confident that I'm average-or-above, which should guarantee work somewhere. If the recession starts in 6 months, I have another 6 months' runway still comfortably, and I can start the search early. I recall in previous recessions companies are still hiring developers.
> Boredom breeds a gambling habit. Don't use your free time to trade exciting markets.
This is sound advice; I only gamble in the sense of a family-and-friends regular poker night. I buy bonds & index funds on a set schedule otherwise in markets. I'm not attracted to gambling; I've met people who are, I don't think it's me. But like you say, don't take chances.
> Be accountable to yourself. Try to something meaningful to show for yourself when you're done.
It sounds like based on yours and other commentary, if the "me" time is successful, I should have artifacts to show it. The time off shouldn't represent a material issue during the subsequent job search. Since you say you have personal experience, what is your anecdote? what did you do, what would you have done differently?
Maybe apply to YC or some other seed stage fund with your best idea once you spend a few months developing the concept and talking to potential customers. By the time the process completes you should be well recharged too.
My startup was funded through revenues from day zero, the world entered a recession soon after, and that was a motherf** hard grind. Spending other peoples risk capital would be easier on yourself.
